Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
